State of the Habs 2024-25

I do believe the projections account for Dach returning since he's on the roster, and they predict the most likely outcomes for all players including Gallagher and Anderson, so someone would have to outplay how they've done recently to move the needle. I certainly think we're a young team with the possibility of showing improvement both on an individual level as well as system-wise. I think the biggest chance is going to have to come from the PP if we're going to see improvement, so some of this might also come down to whether we get a better PP coach than Burrows (and I wonder if he might actually have been relieved of his duties as a coach and the whole thing masked as being a decision of his for family reasons). But at the end of the day, the other teams in the bottom 5-10 group are also maturing and getting better too, so this is not isolated to our own situation. San Jose added Toffoli. They probably get Celebrini. Maybe they get Dickinson or Smith or Musty too. Chicago added a number of UFAs and how this helps could vary greatly. Maybe they get Hall back. Bedard is a year more experienced. Nazar is there. Anaheim maybe gets Gauthier. Carlsson will play more. Maybe Zellwegger makes the team. Mintyukov and Mctavish are a year older. Maybe they deal Zegras for help elsewhere, and he missed a lot of the year last year. The point is that these other teams can also argue they're a bit better. And who else has gotten a lot worse who is projected to be bottom 5-10? Calgary? Pittsburgh? Buffalo?

As for the question about defencemen, if we don't make any moves whatsoever, this is how I would expect MSL to line up his defence to start the year:

Matheson-Guhle (with Guhle playing the right on the top pair again)

Harris-Savard

Xhekaj-Mailloux

Struble-Barron

Now it's possible Mailloux doesn't make the team or that some of those bottom 6 guys get moved around a bit, but I don't see a ton of change happening compared to last year. Unless we move other players out, there really isn't a lot of room for waiver-eligible players like Hutson and Reinbacher to make the jump. Could we sent a couple of the other guys down instead? Yes, for part of the year. But I think a younger guy would need to really force the team's hand to make that happen. With that in mind, I don't expect to see big changes to the D corps. I think IF Hughes had succeeded in adding a veteran as short-term help (like a Stamkos, Marchessault, etc.) then the plan might have changed a bit, but given where we ended up after free agency and given the other bottom feeders pushing a bit more for immediate improvement (and given Demidov isn't coming over for another year), I think Hughes is going to sit back and see that he probably isn't going to force trying to finish 8th-last or 12-last. I did think initially this was going to be a year where we tried to push for the playoffs, but the more the summer plays out, the more I think Hughes is going to let next year play out similar to the last one: hope for personal improvement from players but not force the need for the team to do well as a whole. If they do well, they do well. If they do the same as last year, then so be it. He and Gorton have already said they think the summer of 2025-26 will be more important than this one, and I think by then, we will have expected all of Hutson, Reinbacher, Mailloux, and Demidov to have arrived, and we'll see Dvorak, Armia, Savard, and maybe Evans go. We get two more salary retention slots back, so maybe an Anderson or a Gallagher gets shipped out. I think they'll be a lot of roster turnover in the next 12 months, but where we stand now, I'm not sure we'll see trades forced just to squeeze in a youngster. I think Hughes will make a move if he feels it's good value for our plan, but I think he's also content to let some of those younger players start the year in Laval.

More or less agreed on the premise of where we are as a team. With respect to Hutson (or any other young player though), I think the situation is less clear after the summer we've had so far. We know Hughes tried to go after Marchessault and Monahan and maybe 1-2 other veterans, but he couldn't find a guy willing to sign for 3 years or less. If he had landed one or two of those line-up changers, then I think this is a different discussion. He still might via trade, but the discussion we're having is based on where we are as a team right now. Without having added some win-now type players to our line-up, we're not really any better off than last year. Again, yes, we will get Dach back and our players will be a year more experienced, but as discussed, a lot of other teams can make similar arguments about having improved. Some teams have probably gotten worse... Florida can't keep their whole roster together, Tampa made some confusing moves, Calgary is pretty bad, Buffalo and LA didn't really make much progress, etc. But most of those teams won't be teams we're likely to pass in the standings regardless. The ones we've been sitting around the past few years mostly got better. Chicago. San Jose. Anaheim. Utah. So while we may be taking a small step forward, so too may those teams.

All that to say that given our failure to put ourselves in a good position to challenge for the playoffs, I don't think the team is going to push players onto the roster unnecessarily just to help them add 2-3 wins. I think they'll consider

1. What's best for the player's development without rushing them.

2. How to juggle contracts to not lose anyone to waivers.

With that in mind, I agree that Hutson seems ready to have a go at the NHL. But there isn't a lot of room for him roster-wise unless they clear out more players than just Kovacevic. And if the longterm plan is to groom Hutson and Reinbacher as a pair (something they were using at development camp last year), I can see them being interested in playing them together as the top pairing in Laval to start the year. There will be trades and injuries as we go, so I suspect both guys will get some NHL games next year. But if Mailloux spent last year in the minors and Barron and Xhekaj both took reasonable turns there too, I don't think they're afraid to park youngsters there to get them ice rather than playing 12-15 minutes in the NHL. Now Matheson, Savard, Harris, and Barron are all waiver-eligible, so they need to stay or be traded if we don't want to lose them for nothing. Guhle isn't going to the minors. So that's 5 guys right there. Past that, it's a decision between Xhekaj, Struble, Hutson, Mailloux, Reinbacher, or any other surprise player from camp for the last 2-3 spots. My guess is that Xhekaj, Struble, and Mailloux are the three guys with the leg up on having spots to lose.