regis
Le Gros Bill
Posts: 1,272
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Post by regis on Jan 12, 2024 19:17:01 GMT
Pierre Luc Dubois has been nothing short of a disaster in LA- but - would you consider trading him if it meant we could move Gallagher? PLD makes only $2m more per year than Gallagher. His contract is 4 years longer than Gally's though. I suspect we'd have to throw in another piece (maybe harris) but i think LA would listen considering how much PLD has fallen out of favour. This is the only year of his deal that doesnt have a NMC clause so they might be willing to do something asap & leave value on the table because they wont have as many options after this year. Would you do it? PLD for Gallagher + Harris I’ll pass As much as I’m Not a fan of #11 , I’ll live with 3 more years of him @ 6 m / yr ; just play him on the 3 rd or 4 th line or bury him in the minors somehow Rather than 7 yrs of PLD at $8 m + per year. . He would be highest paid player ion the team and he’s so far a 60 + point player ( maybe ) on his best year Then how long before he starts whining about something |
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Post by selteeck on Jan 12, 2024 20:02:15 GMT
Pierre Luc Dubois has been nothing short of a disaster in LA- but - would you consider trading him if it meant we could move Gallagher? PLD makes only $2m more per year than Gallagher. His contract is 4 years longer than Gally's though. I suspect we'd have to throw in another piece (maybe harris) but i think LA would listen considering how much PLD has fallen out of favour. This is the only year of his deal that doesnt have a NMC clause so they might be willing to do something asap & leave value on the table because they wont have as many options after this year. Would you do it? PLD for Gallagher + Harris A bad player with a bad long contract for a bad player with even worse and longer contract? And I need to throw in a decent player with a decent contract? Nope. Thanks. |
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Post by maasart on Jan 12, 2024 21:43:14 GMT
Pierre Luc Dubois has been nothing short of a disaster in LA- but - would you consider trading him if it meant we could move Gallagher? PLD makes only $2m more per year than Gallagher. His contract is 4 years longer than Gally's though. I suspect we'd have to throw in another piece (maybe harris) but i think LA would listen considering how much PLD has fallen out of favour. This is the only year of his deal that doesnt have a NMC clause so they might be willing to do something asap & leave value on the table because they wont have as many options after this year. Would you do it? PLD for Gallagher + Harris A bad player with a bad long contract for a bad player with even worse and longer contract? And I need to throw in a decent player with a decent contract? Nope. Thanks. I mean, i think its pretty likely PLD is a 60+ point player for the duration of that contract. Gallagher likely never breaks 40 again. So for the next 4 years you're paying $2m more for a considerably better player. The last 4 are the real question mark but by 2028 is $8.5m that expensive anymore? its tough to say. I probably dont make this deal simply because i think PLD is a bit of a headcase (as regis noted) but its tempting as you likely wouldnt have to give up much if LA is panicking about that NMC kicking in. |
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Post by BigTed3 on Jan 13, 2024 3:07:01 GMT
Pierre Luc Dubois has been nothing short of a disaster in LA- but - would you consider trading him if it meant we could move Gallagher? PLD makes only $2m more per year than Gallagher. His contract is 4 years longer than Gally's though. I suspect we'd have to throw in another piece (maybe harris) but i think LA would listen considering how much PLD has fallen out of favour. This is the only year of his deal that doesnt have a NMC clause so they might be willing to do something asap & leave value on the table because they wont have as many options after this year. Would you do it? PLD for Gallagher + Harris Nope. But then again, I was never really a fan of trading for PLD in the first place. Seemed like a bit of a baby, inconsistent effort, etc. and likely not worth the contract he was going to ask for. At this point, I don't see much value in retaining Gallagher and would be glad to trade him, but if we're comparing two players I don't really want, I'd rather take the one with the shorter contract left. The most important factor in this is how long it takes you to get out from under the bad contract. In this case, PLD's deal gives you less flexibility, and since I don't see him as a core guy, I wouldn't want to pay him the salary he's getting. LA would need to eat 40-50% of his salary for me to consider that move. In practice, the ideal trade involving Gallagher would be for a guy who makes the same or maybe a tad more but who's contract only has a year left after this one so that we finish up our commitment before it affects our cap in a year that matters. I'm not interested in trading for a longer-term problem like PLD or Campbell or so on. |
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Post by BigTed3 on Jan 23, 2024 1:34:08 GMT
If I were GM, these are the odds I would be looking to trade the following players:
- Monahan: 100%... the worst mistake would be to be suckered in and think we're closer to contending than we are. He's a good player, but he doesn't fit the window. Take the return while the stock is high.
- Pearson: 100%... he's a pending UFA. He's blocking a roster spot for someone else when he returns. Let him play a few games to re-establish he's healthy then sell for whatever you can get.
- Evans: 50%... sure we're short centers, but he doesn't fit the longterm plans here and you might be able to garner a bit of a return for a defensive center as a playoff acquisition. If we can get a 3rd rounder for him, I'd make the trade. Figure out how to patch the hole later.
- Armia: 70%... I like Armia more than most people. I think he's a valuable playoff performer, and if we were a contending team, I would want to keep him. But we're not. Will anyone take him? Hard to know. No one wanted him before, but he's quietly had a very good season at both ends of the ice and some GMS will remember what he did in our Cup finals run. Maybe an Edmonton pairs him back with Perry. Maybe a Dallas or a Vegas or a NY Rangers team sees him as a good depth acquisition. He's not an automatic sell in my books because I think his value could actually be higher next year as his contract gets closer to expiring. But if I can find a deal I like, I'd make the move now.
- Anderson 20%... I said it last year, we should have traded him while his stock was up and we had offers. Too late. I'm not optimistic there's a deal this year and I think you want to try and avoid selling low on him.
- Matheson and Savard: 50% one of them goes. I think their fates are tired somewhat because you need to keep one for the rest of the season at least to be the vet on the back end. I think ideally Savard is the guy that goes if you can get a 1st rounder or equivalent back. I think he'll have value. The problem is that the right side of the D is already decimated. But as with the Evans situation, the fact is that I'm not really thinking about what that does to us this year because this year doesn't matter. So you look for your return and you take it if it's there. Matheson has a higher chance of bringing back a good return, but he'll likely still have value in the off-season, whereas Savard is a player who's value goes up around playoff time.
- Guhle: 75%... I've spoken about this ad nauseum, but if Matheson isn't going and Hutson is on his way, something has to give. He's a guy I'm not looking to dump but who I am leaving out there as my trade bait to try and bring back a top 6 forward or top 4 RHD. If I can use him to go and get a Zegras, a Johnson, a Norris, a Nemec, etc. I'm thinking long and hard about that. Which is not to say those players are available to us or what it would cost, but you have to give to get and the roster balance by making a move like that helps us immensely.
- Allen: 90%... he's the odd man out at the back end. Now I'd personally also think about trading Montembeault still, even though Hughes won't. But if you can get any type of return for Allen, it would help clear playing time for the two others and a bit of cap room roo.
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Post by claremont on Jan 23, 2024 13:35:47 GMT
If I were GM, these are the odds I would be looking to trade the following players: - Monahan: 100%... the worst mistake would be to be suckered in and think we're closer to contending than we are. He's a good player, but he doesn't fit the window. Take the return while the stock is high. - Pearson: 100%... he's a pending UFA. He's blocking a roster spot for someone else when he returns. Let him play a few games to re-establish he's healthy then sell for whatever you can get. - Evans: 50%... sure we're short centers, but he doesn't fit the longterm plans here and you might be able to garner a bit of a return for a defensive center as a playoff acquisition. If we can get a 3rd rounder for him, I'd make the trade. Figure out how to patch the hole later. - Armia: 70%... I like Armia more than most people. I think he's a valuable playoff performer, and if we were a contending team, I would want to keep him. But we're not. Will anyone take him? Hard to know. No one wanted him before, but he's quietly had a very good season at both ends of the ice and some GMS will remember what he did in our Cup finals run. Maybe an Edmonton pairs him back with Perry. Maybe a Dallas or a Vegas or a NY Rangers team sees him as a good depth acquisition. He's not an automatic sell in my books because I think his value could actually be higher next year as his contract gets closer to expiring. But if I can find a deal I like, I'd make the move now. - Anderson 20%... I said it last year, we should have traded him while his stock was up and we had offers. Too late. I'm not optimistic there's a deal this year and I think you want to try and avoid selling low on him. - Matheson and Savard: 50% one of them goes. I think their fates are tired somewhat because you need to keep one for the rest of the season at least to be the vet on the back end. I think ideally Savard is the guy that goes if you can get a 1st rounder or equivalent back. I think he'll have value. The problem is that the right side of the D is already decimated. But as with the Evans situation, the fact is that I'm not really thinking about what that does to us this year because this year doesn't matter. So you look for your return and you take it if it's there. Matheson has a higher chance of bringing back a good return, but he'll likely still have value in the off-season, whereas Savard is a player who's value goes up around playoff time. - Guhle: 75%... I've spoken about this ad nauseum, but if Matheson isn't going and Hutson is on his way, something has to give. He's a guy I'm not looking to dump but who I am leaving out there as my trade bait to try and bring back a top 6 forward or top 4 RHD. If I can use him to go and get a Zegras, a Johnson, a Norris, a Nemec, etc. I'm thinking long and hard about that. Which is not to say those players are available to us or what it would cost, but you have to give to get and the roster balance by making a move like that helps us immensely. - Allen: 90%... he's the odd man out at the back end. Now I'd personally also think about trading Montembeault still, even though Hughes won't. But if you can get any type of return for Allen, it would help clear playing time for the two others and a bit of cap room roo. Here's the wrinkle on your percentages that I posed earlier, and nobody commented so up to you lol. I am not so certain the percentages are valid without salary retained. Armia - do you really think someone will pick up that extra year of term at $3.5M without some salary retention? Savard - Similarly - do you think someone is more inclined to pick up Savard's extra 1 year of term without salary retention? The way I looked at it, picking up 50% on one of these contracts is a no brainer - you want to create space on your roster, and the acquiring team's cost for the next season is only $1.75M. If Armia or Savard turn out to be duds for the acquiring team next season, it is only a $600K net cap mistake as $1.15M can be buried in the minors. Thirdly - Allen - Same question? Now we only have 1 retention slot for this year (2 for next year but 1 would carryover with a 2024-25 term), and is it in our best interest to use it on one of the above and in which priority. Alternatively is using a retention slot for this year, likely to provide a better return on taking on a bad contract independent of the above. (e.g. Vrana, Kapanen etc. but I don't think the Blues are are buyers) FWIW, I have assumed the Cheap Evans, and the Matheson value do not need any salary retention. |
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RCAF48
Captain Kirk
Posts: 453
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Post by RCAF48 on Jan 23, 2024 14:39:00 GMT
If I were GM, these are the odds I would be looking to trade the following players: - Monahan: 100%... the worst mistake would be to be suckered in and think we're closer to contending than we are. He's a good player, but he doesn't fit the window. When is the window? |
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regis
Le Gros Bill
Posts: 1,272
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Post by regis on Jan 23, 2024 14:47:08 GMT
Every year it moves out 2 or 3 years
I’m Not even sure what this window is suppose to represent
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Post by maasart on Jan 23, 2024 17:41:42 GMT
Every year it moves out 2 or 3 years I’m Not even sure what this window is suppose to represent Personally I think our window could start as early as next year but we should be well into it about 2 years. Suzuki will be a 'young vet' Caufield will be hitting his prime. Slaf will have a couple of years under his belt and guys like Dach, Newhook, Guhle, Struble, Harris etc will all be hitting their stride. We may be adding a guy like Hutson at the end of this season and possibly Reinbacher next fall. The team is slowly coming together. Which is why, to me, trading away picks for young players already a year or two into their development may make sense and why i could see Hughes move our 1st rounder this year (assuming its not in the top 5-8) for a young guy ready to break into the league or starting to take on a bigger role. I suspect Hughes is going to make some big moves in the next 8-10 months actually. |
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Post by ramcharger440 on Jan 23, 2024 18:53:18 GMT
Every year it moves out 2 or 3 years I’m Not even sure what this window is suppose to represent Personally I think our window could start as early as next year but we should be well into it about 2 years. Suzuki will be a 'young vet' Caufield will be hitting his prime. Slaf will have a couple of years under his belt and guys like Dach, Newhook, Guhle, Struble, Harris etc will all be hitting their stride. We may be adding a guy like Hutson at the end of this season and possibly Reinbacher next fall. The team is slowly coming together. Which is why, to me, trading away picks for young players already a year or two into their development may make sense and why i could see Hughes move our 1st rounder this year (assuming its not in the top 5-8) for a young guy ready to break into the league or starting to take on a bigger role. I suspect Hughes is going to make some big moves in the next 8-10 months actually. I see things the same way 100% if we just keep punting it down the road with draft picks we will never have a team just bunch of prospects. Don't forget Suzuki is in his fifth year not really so young anymore I expect some signings and trades will be made to get us into the hunt next season and the expectation is to be solid contenders the year after. |
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Post by claremont on Jan 30, 2024 15:06:04 GMT
If I am trying to trade Monahan in the bidding wars to garner a 1st round pick or, a prospect and possibly a 2nd or 3rd round pick, here is my scouting assessment of the prospects I would be interested in from potential buyers / bidders. S Denotes a size issue and ? denotes questionable - both of which don't move the needle for me on much ceiling improvement
Team 2024 1st Rd? Prospects of Interest
Rangers Yes LW - Othmann, RW -Perreault (S)
Avalanche Yes C- Ritchie
Stars Yes C- Bourque, C - Stankoven (S)
Red Wings Yes C-Kasper, C-Danielson, RW-Berggren (S), RHD-Sandin-Pellika, RHD - Gibson
Blues Yes C-Dvorsky, C-Stenberg, RW-Snuggerud
Capitals Yes RW-Leonard, Rw - Cristall (S), RHD- Chesley
Jets Yes C-Lambert, LW-Barlow, RW/C-Mcgroarty, C-Lucius?
Canucks Yes RW/C-Lekermiaki, RHD-Wilander
Vegas GK Yes C-Edstrom, C-Morozov? - went back to KHL, C-Sapovaliv
Stars Yes C- Bourque, C - Stankoven (S), RHD-Kyrou
Hurricanes Yes LW - Trikozov?, LW Nadeau (S)
Kings Yes RW-Kaliyev, RW-Ziemmer - RHD Clarke is untouchable
Oilers Yes LW/C-Holloway, RHD-Akey,RW/C-Bourgault?
Penguins No - but a 2nd C-Yager, LHD Pickering duplicates, and ?C-Poulin
Islanders Yes No Prospects of Interest, NO to Bolduc or Dufour
Devils Yes RHD-Seamus Casey (S)
Leafs No C-Minten,
Bruins No RW - Fabian Lysell (S), C-Poitras unavailable
Panthers No No Prospects of Interest
Nashville Yes RW -Wood, RW-Kemell (S), LW-Schaefer, C-L'Heuruex(S)
Seattle Yes LW-Sale, RW-Firkus(S), C-Goyette(S)
Lightening No RW-Gauthier, LW-Howard
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Post by ChiLla on Jan 30, 2024 15:45:03 GMT
If I am trying to trade Monahan in the bidding wars to garner a 1st round pick or, a prospect and possibly a 2nd or 3rd round pick, here is my scouting assessment of the prospects I would be interested in from potential buyers / bidders. S Denotes a size issue and ? denotes questionable - both of which don't move the needle for me on much ceiling improvement Team 2024 1st Rd? Prospects of Interest Rangers Yes LW - Othmann, RW -Perreault (S) Avalanche Yes C- RitchieStars Yes C- Bourque, C - Stankoven (S) Red Wings Yes C- Kasper, C- Danielson, RW-Berggren (S), RHD-Sandin-Pellika, RHD - Gibson Blues Yes C- Dvorsky, C-Stenberg, RW-Snuggerud Capitals Yes RW- Leonard, Rw - Cristall (S), RHD- Chesley Jets Yes C- Lambert, LW-Barlow, RW/C-Mcgroarty, C-Lucius? Canucks Yes RW/C- Lekermiaki, RHD-Wilander Vegas GK Yes C-Edstrom, C-Morozov? - went back to KHL, C-Sapovaliv Stars Yes C- Bourque, C - Stankoven (S), RHD-Kyrou Hurricanes Yes LW - Trikozov?, LW Nadeau (S) Kings Yes RW-Kaliyev, RW-Ziemmer - RHD Clarke is untouchable Oilers Yes LW/C-Holloway, RHD-Akey,RW/C-Bourgault? Penguins No - but a 2nd C-Yager, LHD Pickering duplicates, and ?C-Poulin Islanders Yes No Prospects of Interest, NO to Bolduc or Dufour Devils Yes RHD-Seamus Casey (S) Leafs No C-Minten, Bruins No RW - Fabian Lysell (S), C-Poitras unavailable Panthers No No Prospects of Interest Nashville Yes RW - Wood, RW- Kemell (S), LW-Schaefer, C-L'Heuruex(S) Seattle Yes LW-Sale, RW-Firkus(S), C-Goyette(S) Lightening No RW-Gauthier, LW-Howard I usually don't follow prospects in great detail once they're picked by another team, so thanks for putting this together! Just for fun, I highlighted some of the guys I'd be really happy with in a Monahan trade (probably missed a few as well). I'd definitly focus on acquiring a strong C prospect though, I feel we're already thin at that position (question marks surrounding Dach and Mesar, not sure Beck will be a 2C in the NHL), so once Monahan is gone it'll be downright ugly. I also share your concerns regarding size, if a guy can play he can play but there are only so many smallish players you can realistically have in your lineup and one spot will already be taken by Caufield. |
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Post by maasart on Jan 30, 2024 18:27:58 GMT
If I am trying to trade Monahan in the bidding wars to garner a 1st round pick or, a prospect and possibly a 2nd or 3rd round pick, here is my scouting assessment of the prospects I would be interested in from potential buyers / bidders. S Denotes a size issue and ? denotes questionable - both of which don't move the needle for me on much ceiling improvement Team 2024 1st Rd? Prospects of Interest Rangers Yes LW - Othmann, RW -Perreault (S) Avalanche Yes C- RitchieStars Yes C- Bourque, C - Stankoven (S) Red Wings Yes C- Kasper, C- Danielson, RW-Berggren (S), RHD-Sandin-Pellika, RHD - Gibson Blues Yes C- Dvorsky, C-Stenberg, RW-Snuggerud Capitals Yes RW- Leonard, Rw - Cristall (S), RHD- Chesley Jets Yes C- Lambert, LW-Barlow, RW/C-Mcgroarty, C-Lucius? Canucks Yes RW/C- Lekermiaki, RHD-Wilander Vegas GK Yes C-Edstrom, C-Morozov? - went back to KHL, C-Sapovaliv Stars Yes C- Bourque, C - Stankoven (S), RHD-Kyrou Hurricanes Yes LW - Trikozov?, LW Nadeau (S) Kings Yes RW-Kaliyev, RW-Ziemmer - RHD Clarke is untouchable Oilers Yes LW/C-Holloway, RHD-Akey,RW/C-Bourgault? Penguins No - but a 2nd C-Yager, LHD Pickering duplicates, and ?C-Poulin Islanders Yes No Prospects of Interest, NO to Bolduc or Dufour Devils Yes RHD-Seamus Casey (S) Leafs No C-Minten, Bruins No RW - Fabian Lysell (S), C-Poitras unavailable Panthers No No Prospects of Interest Nashville Yes RW - Wood, RW- Kemell (S), LW-Schaefer, C-L'Heuruex(S) Seattle Yes LW-Sale, RW-Firkus(S), C-Goyette(S) Lightening No RW-Gauthier, LW-Howard I usually don't follow prospects in great detail once they're picked by another team, so thanks for putting this together! Just for fun, I highlighted some of the guys I'd be really happy with in a Monahan trade (probably missed a few as well). I'd definitly focus on acquiring a strong C prospect though, I feel we're already thin at that position (question marks surrounding Dach and Mesar, not sure Beck will be a 2C in the NHL), so once Monahan is gone it'll be downright ugly. I also share your concerns regarding size, if a guy can play he can play but there are only so many smallish players you can realistically have in your lineup and one spot will already be taken by Caufield. Agree with both of you guys. I think its more likely Hughes tries to gets a top prospect + 2nd vs. a 1st and a couple of lukewarm prospects. Ritchie from Colorado would be a really nice add but not sure if he's available. They are really thin at centre. Dvorsky is an interesting name since the Habs were rumoured to be interested in him at last year's draft. Ryan Leonard was the guy who i actually wanted at last year's draft (although im not unhappy with Reinbacher) so id certainly love that but not sure washington would make that move. This trade could be a huge boost for our future if Hughes gets it right. One of the analysts (I think Dreger or Friedman) was tlaking about how Monahan's value probably goes way up if the team he's getting traded to considers re-signing him. So if, for example, he's a good fit in Colorado & they want to extend him they might well part with a guy like Ritchie, despite their thin-ness at centre because they would then have Mackinnon - Monahan - Colton as their top 3 centres and that should tide them over for a few years... |
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Post by jenniferrocket on Mar 6, 2024 13:21:04 GMT
Buyout calculator (from Capfriendly.com) for Brendan Gallagher.
2024-25 -$333,333
2025-26 $2,166,667
2026-27 $4,666,667
2027-28 $2,166,667
2028-29 $2,166,667
2029-30 $2,166,667
I would legit consider it this off-season. I think Josh Anderson can accrue value again. He's tradeable IMO. Gallagher I feel like is not.
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Post by BigTed3 on Mar 6, 2024 14:10:51 GMT
Buyout calculator (from Capfriendly.com) for Brendan Gallagher. 2024-25 -$333,333 2025-26 $2,166,667 2026-27 $4,666,667 2027-28 $2,166,667 2028-29 $2,166,667 2029-30 $2,166,667 I would legit consider it this off-season. I think Josh Anderson can accrue value again. He's tradeable IMO. Gallagher I feel like is not. Or, if you buy him out in the summer of 2025, then it's
2025-26 1.75M 2026-27 4.25M 2027-28 1.75M 2028-29 1.75M
It would cut down your annual cap hit a bit AND shorten a year off the expense.
If you wait til summer 2026, then it's
2026-27 3.83M 2027-28 1.33M
Ether way, we're getting slammed with a decent hit in 2026-27, but all of that is better than 6.5M for the next 3 years (which, based on his play, is dead money in itself)... of the 3 buyout options that exist, I'd personally favor buying him out in summer 2025. I don't think we'll be competitive enough next year that saving the 6.5M makes a difference, but I'd hope we're in the thick of it by 2025-26 to make the cap savings helpful.
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Post by ramcharger440 on Apr 28, 2024 16:16:49 GMT
If I was GM this off season I would draft the best forward I can then I would try to make a deal for an impact offensive style forward. My next move would be to sign a good free agent to help us with goal scoring short term as we try to develop that aspect in our prospect pool. Somehow we are going to have to make all this happen while moving at least one of our good young D prospects and trying to get rid of some dead weight! Anderson needs to go we just can't count on him to get it done and Dvo needs to move as well we need to get Beck in there to see what can bring in the NHL. Gally has surprised me this season he really came on as the season progressed but I would trade him in an instant just because of his salary and our need to free up some spots! Armia seems to have finally understood what he needs to do after his trips to Laval! I don't think he liked riding the bus! All in all I am glad I am not the one who has to figure out this puzzle!
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regis
Le Gros Bill
Posts: 1,272
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Post by regis on Apr 28, 2024 19:24:17 GMT
👆
It would be a bonus if Management can move any of these three guys
Anderson even in a good year for him is just a 30 point player
Dvorak has missed 52, 18, 26, 26, games the last 4 years
Gallagher may have come on as the season progressed but it doesn’t negate that he sucked for most of the year and he’s getting older not better
There has to be some body that can replace any of the above 3 at considerably less salary .
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Post by HTL on Apr 28, 2024 20:59:04 GMT
👆 It would be a bonus if Management can move any of these three guys Anderson even in a good year for him is just a 30 point player Dvorak has missed 52, 18, 26, 26, games the last 4 years Gallagher may have come on as the season progressed but it doesn’t negate that he sucked for most of the year and he’s getting older not better There has to be some body that can replace any of the above 3 at considerably less salary . That's most likely how other teams feel about those three also. |
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regis
Le Gros Bill
Posts: 1,272
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Post by regis on Apr 28, 2024 21:04:11 GMT
You hope there’s some GM who thinks he can bring out the best in them with a change of scenery . Like the Leaf GM thought bringing in Reaves Domi and Bertuzzi was going to make a difference🤣
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Post by HTL on Apr 28, 2024 21:05:53 GMT
You hope there’s some GM who thinks he can bring out the best in them with a change of scenery . Like the Leaf GM thought bringing in Reaves Domi and Bertuzzi was going to make a difference🤣 So not only does he have to be stupid he also needs cap room. LOL |
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