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Post by graeme on Oct 15, 2024 2:44:08 GMT
This is solid analysis, although I don't know I put too much stock on who was brought in my Bergevin - for example I think the current management group really wants Xhekaj to succeed, but like any player, he's not going to be guranteed a roster spot long term without earning it.
A few random "predictions" from me:
1. Struble is obviously far from "untouchable" but I just feel like given what management has talked about with wanting a team that is built for the playoffs, he's kind of the perfect profile for the type of dman you want to help with a deep playoff run. Stuff can happen (logjam, unreasonable contract demands, etc) but I suspect he'll be around a long time.
2. I'm guessing Xhekaj is given at least this year and next to figure things out, but that may include time in the press box. The team would really love it if he can improve enough to cement his spot.
3. I'm guessing Barron is safe from waivers this year, but also will be spending time in the press-box. I could see them waiving him next year, although it's also possible that even if he doesn't improve that they keep him around until the contract runs out (Ylonen's path). Given lack of depth at RHD, he'll be given every chance (and more) to prove he belongs.
4. I have a feeling that Reinbacher's injury means there's a good chance Savard is extended for 1 or 2 more years if the cost is reasonable - we no longer have an obvious succession plan for next season, and trades/signings are a hard thing to put confidence in ahead of time. It's also possible they don't extend him but also keep him at the deadline if the team is still in the playoff race.
5. Matheson is the biggest wild-card. I agree he's not going anywhere this season, but with Hutson looking good do they consider trying to get younger in the summer? Alternatively, do they make an attempt to extend him (31 year-old is a bit of a danger zone for extensions and Matheson may want to test that market given his point totals, but maybe as a Montreal kid he's willing to come back for something reasonable?). Or does Montreal just get 2 years out of him and let the contract run out (with option of deadline-rental if not in playoff hunt)?
I'm sure they want all the players to do as well as they can. It makes their lives easier. But I think there's also less attachment when you're not the one who brought that player in. It means you weren't the one who saw something in them to begin with and it also means that if things don't work out, it's not necessarily your neck on the line for the failure. HuGo can write off Xhekaj and Mailloux and say they tried to do their best with what was left to them. But if a player like Mesar or Slafkovsky or Reinbacher fails to hit, it's them that get the questions about their decision-making. There's actually psychological data to back this up too: when people are responsible for a decision to acquire something or when they pay money to acquire something, they are less likely to give it up or admit they don't like it than if it is given to them for free or by someone else's decision. If you go out and test drive 10 cars and choose to pay 70k for a vehicle but don't end up liking it, you're more likely to tough it out and try to convince yourself you do than if you got that same vehicle for 20k or were gifted it by a friend or family member or so on... human nature. We don't like to admit we made bad decisions. Same same for when GMs have their own coaches and players vs. guys that were left over from the last regime.
I agree this is generally true, but here I suspect it only really applies to players they took big swings on (mainly Slaf, Reinbacher, Dach, and Newhook) who they might be overly invested in, or players left over from the old regime who they really don't like (who I think they've largely already moved on from). For everyone else, failures are expected, so I don't think they're going to be super attached to say Mesar just because they drafted him with a (low) first rounder. Similarly, I believe they are highly invested in Xhekaj because they see the potential if he can get past the short-comings.
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Post by ramcharger440 on Oct 16, 2024 17:02:30 GMT
Overall the start of the season has been really interesting so far! Sure we have had ups and downs but I kind of expected we would in the first 20 or so games dure to some new faces and some guys coming back who have really not played much due to injuries. The injury to Laine sucked as much because it really hurt our second line and offensive depth as much as it did to have Laine not be able to get a good start to the year to work out the kinks from his past injury! There have been some real bright spots in the play of Hutson and to a lesser degree some of our older depth guys are doing a great job right now which means we don't have to force some of the young forwards into tough spots too fast, I really like Kapenen and to my surprise Heineman is looking good too. On D Guhle is showing what he can do and Hutson is going to be a star Savard looks like he is slipping a bit he is still a solid shut down type but he will need to be replaced at some point soonish Matheson is off a bit so far and getting too many minutes Arber is ok but he needs to do more work on his game Barron well I don't know if I will ever feel comfortable with him out there! One thing is for sure next season with the addition of Demidov and having Laine added to our forward cast of Sla CC who is on fire the ever steady Suzuki with Dach penciled in there somewhere we will be able to score with most teams! our special teams seem to be on the upswing right now so that is good we will have to see how our goaltending and defence pan out this season but we seem to be moving forward.
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regis
Le Gros Bill
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Post by regis on Oct 16, 2024 17:59:41 GMT
I hear a lot of hockey people say that by the 🇺🇸 USA Thanksgiving you find out what kinda team you got . Things don’t change much after that.
If they can stay in the PO race until Laine comes back and then we’ll see how much of a difference / inspiration he will make .
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Post by maasart on Oct 16, 2024 19:41:53 GMT
I hear a lot of hockey people say that by the 🇺🇸 USA Thanksgiving you find out what kinda team you got . Things don’t change much after that. If they can stay 8n the PO race until Laine comes back and then how much of a difference / inspiration he will make . For sure. The other thing is that while some players are excelling off the bat (CC, Guhle, Hutson, Gallagher, Heineman) some are still looking rusty (Suzuki, Dach) so i think we still havent seen the best this team can be. I think if we can be in a decent spot when Laine gets back (assuming he is only gone 2 months or so) then we should get a big boost when he gets back. |
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RCAF48
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Post by RCAF48 on Oct 18, 2024 14:23:53 GMT
Read the normal media propaganda this AM. Paraphrasing..."the young team played hard last night and Hutson was amazing" BS!! the team played like crap and Hutson played like a rookie forced to play 30 mins before he was ready to, if we keep playing him like that he'll soon weigh 152 lbs, be exhausted and become a prime candidate for a season ending injury.
The team wasn't ready to play again and/or didn't pay attention to MSL's game plan suggestions. The top line played like a slow third line and while calling Newhook/Dach/Armia a line is technically correct, calling them a second line is something only politicians would say in discussing failed policies
IMO this is the year MSL has to stop talking and start coaching. The team is young but some of these youngsters are in their third or fourth year and are still making the same mistakes. Bring on the tough love, the press box should not be solely reserved for Pez.
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Post by maasart on Oct 18, 2024 15:18:57 GMT
Read the normal media propaganda this AM. Paraphrasing..."the young team played hard last night and Hutson was amazing" BS!! the team played like crap and Hutson played like a rookie forced to play 30 mins before he was ready to, if we keep playing him like that he'll soon weigh 152 lbs, be exhausted and become a prime candidate for a season ending injury. The team wasn't ready to play again and/or didn't pay attention to MSL's game plan suggestions. The top line played like a slow third line and while calling Newhook/Dach/Armia a line is technically correct, calling them a second line is something only politicians would say in discussing failed policies IMO this is the year MSL has to stop talking and start coaching. The team is young but some of these youngsters are in their third or fourth year and are still making the same mistakes. Bring on the tough love, the press box should not be solely reserved for Pez. I thought our first line looked for about 10-15 minutes to start the game & then looked uninterested in competing once some of their better chances werent capitalized on. No idea why Slaf seems to think he's CC's size. He's not using his weight/size at all this year which is weird. He's making pretty plays but this guy's big thing is that he can go through you just as easily as he can go around you. He needs to remember that. The second line looked horrible save for 1 or 2 shifts/plays. Newhook/Dach doesnt work & the only way Armia works on that line is if the other 2 jive. Id be more inclined to drop Newhook back a line and bring Kapanen or Heineman up until Laine is ready. I know Dach is at fault, he's still not up to speed after missing a year but he looks out of it. Suzuki called the effort "immature" and i think thats a fair statement. These guys dress like professionals, talk like professionals, they need to start playing like them. Frankly the Evans/Gallagher/Anderson line was the only one that looked like they were really playing a game last night. Too bad they're not very good. |
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Post by jenniferrocket on Oct 18, 2024 16:09:30 GMT
There are some worrisome early trends through five games. Why the heck do we look so much less energetic than the teams we are playing? I do feel like this is a year that is as important for the coaching staff as it is for the players. The team needs to be able to compete for a wildcard spot and they should be showing an upward trajectory. So far... Not sure we're gonna get that. I hope we do. Five games is a small sample size.
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regis
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Post by regis on Oct 18, 2024 17:06:52 GMT
It’s early BUT I did pick them to finish last in their division . There should be , or better be , an improvement over last year but not enough to make the PO’s . iMO we did not make any significant enough
changes to the roster that would warrant a PO team .
Now before you all tear a strip off me .
Goal
. We -Allen , + Primeau . Primeaus gonna play + - 30 games . Our goalies aren’t gonna steal us games every night . They just gotta keep us in the games
D
We got rid of Kovasevic and Harris . Kovasevic was a healthy scratch and I don’t even know where Harris was in the lineup
you know what you’re getting from Matheson and Savard . Can Matheson be as good as last year 🤷♂️ and is Savard slowing down 🤷♂️
Wifi and Struble are third pairing D men- nothing to get overly excited about
Barron who knows what to expect , some don’t even like him
Guhle looks to be better
Hutson is a rookie but who can predict what he can bring 🤷♂️ . We may be putting unrealistic expectations on the kid .
Forwards
We added Dach but he’s missed an entire year I’ll give him some leeway
We added Laine but he’s out 2 or 3 months and then we’ll reassess what he can bring to the team
Kapanen and heineman - are they top six ? Probably not
Everyone else is the same as last year I think .
To expect Anderson to bounce back . He’s a 30 point player nothing more
Gallagher getting on in age , again he’s not getting 30 Goals playing on the 3rd 4 th line
To expect the young players to be better simply because they have one more years experience under them is IMO unrealistic .
That’s not what happens in the real world
Some do get better , some are what they are , some regress . And some never make it
I honestly don’t know what to expect from CC or YS.
Give it a couple months to see where we are not 5 games.
and MSL has never coached beyond being an assistant for his sons high school team . He talks a good game but maybe coaching an NHl team is a little beyond him. I added that for discussion not to to create a massive uproar .
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Post by HTL on Oct 18, 2024 17:50:32 GMT
MSL was a decent stop gap IMO but i'm starting to see signs of him being tuned out by the team. Grant you it's still super early in the season,but the lack of effort was pretty blatant last night and if they really care about this coach, then things will need to change quickly. The honeymoon is over as far as i'm concerned. If there's no improvement on last year we'll soon be seeing calls by the fans and media for Marty's head. I for one have not been impressed with what i'm seeing.
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Post by BigTed3 on Oct 18, 2024 18:36:26 GMT
Assuming the guys who got hurt in the past 24 hours regain their health, I think it's imperative we make some changes to the line-up, and it starts with the first line. The line has been crap to start the year, outside of Caufield sniping a few. But they're being largely outplayed, and I'm not seeing a lot of effort from any of them. They need a kick in the butt to get going, and I think splitting them up would be a good start. On the 2nd line, Dach played maybe his best game of the year last night and tried to do some more things offensively, but he's still a step behind the pace. I don't see a lof of point to keeping Newhook on that line when Dach can't keep up. All that to say, I'd like to reunite Dach with CC and Slaf and see if they can find some chemistry again. Meanwhile, I'd give Suzuki some linemates with something to prove: a young guy who's earning his keep and a veteran who is working his butt off to remain relevant. On the third line, let's try using Kapanen at center given that he's doing better at faceoffs than most of the regular centers. Here's what I'd go with up front:
Heineman-Suzuki-Gallagher
Caufield-Dach-Slafkovsky
Newhook-Kapanen-Armia
Dvorak-Evans-Anderson
On D, let's hope Guhle and Matheson are okay. Barron, like Dach, had his best game of the season last night but needs to bring it more regularly. Xhekaj and Savard continue to struggle. With Struble healthy and Mailloux recalled, we have some options, but I'd move to this next:
Matheson-Guhle
Hutson-Savard
Struble-Mailloux
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Post by maasart on Oct 18, 2024 20:20:36 GMT
Assuming the guys who got hurt in the past 24 hours regain their health, I think it's imperative we make some changes to the line-up, and it starts with the first line. The line has been crap to start the year, outside of Caufield sniping a few. But they're being largely outplayed, and I'm not seeing a lot of effort from any of them. They need a kick in the butt to get going, and I think splitting them up would be a good start. On the 2nd line, Dach played maybe his best game of the year last night and tried to do some more things offensively, but he's still a step behind the pace. I don't see a lof of point to keeping Newhook on that line when Dach can't keep up. All that to say, I'd like to reunite Dach with CC and Slaf and see if they can find some chemistry again. Meanwhile, I'd give Suzuki some linemates with something to prove: a young guy who's earning his keep and a veteran who is working his butt off to remain relevant. On the third line, let's try using Kapanen at center given that he's doing better at faceoffs than most of the regular centers. Here's what I'd go with up front: Heineman-Suzuki-Gallagher Caufield-Dach-Slafkovsky Newhook-Kapanen-Armia Dvorak-Evans-Anderson On D, let's hope Guhle and Matheson are okay. Barron, like Dach, had his best game of the season last night but needs to bring it more regularly. Xhekaj and Savard continue to struggle. With Struble healthy and Mailloux recalled, we have some options, but I'd move to this next: Matheson-Guhle Hutson-Savard Struble-Mailloux I like it but i dont think we'll see it. MSL is going to point to 5 games, Caufield 5 points, Suzuki 4 points and Slaf 4 points and say "they're doing fine" but of course the stats only tell a fraction of the story. I think at very least id like to see one of those guys with Dach. He's not up to game shape but Newhook is not the answer on that line. I like both players but they do not compliment each other at all. |
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Post by ramcharger440 on Oct 18, 2024 20:59:26 GMT
Have to agree with Newhook and Dach not meshing at all the number of broken plays between those two is crazy! as for the rest we are 5 games not too worried about it yet but the effort is a concern they better get serious or there is going to be big time backlash from the fans! We can handle the team taking a bit to gel with guys coming back after injuries but soft sloppy play won't fly long!
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Post by BigTed3 on Oct 19, 2024 2:58:00 GMT
Assuming the guys who got hurt in the past 24 hours regain their health, I think it's imperative we make some changes to the line-up, and it starts with the first line. The line has been crap to start the year, outside of Caufield sniping a few. But they're being largely outplayed, and I'm not seeing a lot of effort from any of them. They need a kick in the butt to get going, and I think splitting them up would be a good start. On the 2nd line, Dach played maybe his best game of the year last night and tried to do some more things offensively, but he's still a step behind the pace. I don't see a lof of point to keeping Newhook on that line when Dach can't keep up. All that to say, I'd like to reunite Dach with CC and Slaf and see if they can find some chemistry again. Meanwhile, I'd give Suzuki some linemates with something to prove: a young guy who's earning his keep and a veteran who is working his butt off to remain relevant. On the third line, let's try using Kapanen at center given that he's doing better at faceoffs than most of the regular centers. Here's what I'd go with up front: Heineman-Suzuki-Gallagher Caufield-Dach-Slafkovsky Newhook-Kapanen-Armia Dvorak-Evans-Anderson On D, let's hope Guhle and Matheson are okay. Barron, like Dach, had his best game of the season last night but needs to bring it more regularly. Xhekaj and Savard continue to struggle. With Struble healthy and Mailloux recalled, we have some options, but I'd move to this next: Matheson-Guhle Hutson-Savard Struble-Mailloux I like it but i dont think we'll see it. MSL is going to point to 5 games, Caufield 5 points, Suzuki 4 points and Slaf 4 points and say "they're doing fine" but of course the stats only tell a fraction of the story. I think at very least id like to see one of those guys with Dach. He's not up to game shape but Newhook is not the answer on that line. I like both players but they do not compliment each other at all. 5 games this year, but I haven't loved CC-Suzuki for a while. They really rely on that 3rd guy on their line being a hardnosed puck retriever like Dach or Slafkovsky, and if that third guy isn't performing, Suzuki and CC don't make up for it. I also think they've been slacking off defensively, and that needs to be addressed.
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Post by graeme on Oct 19, 2024 4:37:53 GMT
The "glass half-full" take for the State of the Habs would be that the team has been relatively competitive in most games despite half the team appearing to phone-it-in or just underperforming. Presumably that won't continue and there does seem to be enough skill on the roster to push for a playoff spot.
So I'm cautiously optimistic, but hard to be excited when the team looks like they don't care.
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Post by jenniferrocket on Oct 19, 2024 12:51:39 GMT
The "glass half-full" take for the State of the Habs would be that the team has been relatively competitive in most games despite half the team appearing to phone-it-in or just underperforming. Presumably that won't continue and there does seem to be enough skill on the roster to push for a playoff spot. So I'm cautiously optimistic, but hard to be excited when the team looks like they don't care. Good point. I'm hopeful we can compete for a wildcard spot. But there are some things that leave me disappointed to begin the season. I have high expectations for Suzuki-Caulfield-Slafkovsky this season. I want to see them competitive on most nights. I'm really worried about the back-up goaltending situation. I don't think Primeau is NHL quality (prove me wrong, Primeau). If Montembeault has to play 55-65 games... Well... That's gonna be a big challenge. Love that Hutson is getting ice time, but it's likely gonna be an up-and-down season for the kid. Jumping into the NHL on D is touuggghhhhhh. |
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Post by HTL on Oct 20, 2024 15:06:16 GMT
The eye test say's our 1st line hasn't been great but after 6 games,,,CC has 7 points, Slaf 6 points, and Suzy 5 points. Mind you i doubt CC is able to maintain that shooting % for much longer so the other 2 guys will need to start scoring to maintain that point production.
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regis
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Post by regis on Oct 21, 2024 22:12:00 GMT
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Post by HTL on Oct 21, 2024 22:49:01 GMT
MSL might regret that move if their goon runs wild on our guys. I'm somewhat surprised. |
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regis
Le Gros Bill
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Post by regis on Oct 23, 2024 1:15:52 GMT
Poor Dach
7 GP
1 A
0 G
And -10. 😳🤦🏻♂️
that year off didn’t help
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Post by BigTed3 on Oct 23, 2024 2:09:14 GMT
Look, the season is still young, and there will be better stretches of play, but I don't think anyone can realistically look at how this team has started the season and view them as a playoff team. They're bad. The games they won were on the back of Montembeault standing on his head, and the goaltending has been crap since. No start goaltending and the rest of the team just isn't good enough. We can chalk a lot of this up to young guys needing time to develop... Hutson, Mailloux, Struble, Guhle, Xhekaj, Barron, Kapanen, Heineman, Slafkovsky... these are all young players who need to gain some experience.
On the other hand, we haven't seen a lot of leadership and solid play from our vets. Suzuki played well tonight, but he's been lacklustre to start the season again. Caufield has produced offensively but been awful in other aspects of the game outside of his shooting. Dach has been behind the play. Dvorak has been awful. Savard has been awful. Matheson hasn't reproduced what he did last year yet. Armia isn't a 2nd line player. Anderson is playing well for a 4th liner but not so well for a guy being paid like a top 6 player. Ditto Gallagher. I look at the veterans, and the only guy who is probably living up to his salary and spot on the team to start the year might be Evans.
Even the coaching seems to be worse this year. We've played poorly in all facets of the game, and I don't see a lot of adjustments being made. There's a lot of disorganization. The defensive zone play is horrid. How many times have we seen players on the ice for 3 or even 4 minute shifts thus far simply because we can't clear the zone to save our lives? So I'll say a few things I've been saying repeatedly... I don't like Caufield with Suzuki. I don't like Newhook in the top 6. I don't like Hutson with Mailloux. I don't like Heineman on the 4th line. I don't love Barron as an NHL player. There's a lot of holes in this line-up that the coaching isn't going to fix, but I also feel like there's a lack of creativity and trying to get the roster going by moving away from what's clearly not working...
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