|
|
Post by electron58 on Jan 24, 2024 22:27:35 GMT
With this scandal going on, are those teams involved going to stand pat? Be Buyers? Or be Sellers? It could hurt the Habs if they are Sellers or could help if they are Buyers. Worst-case if Sellers it could not only affect our returns but challenge us for a bottom 5 or 6 pick. Just more bad luck befalling the Habs when they really need to grab a stud at the draft.
Does it change all that much? Formenton was long gone in Ottawa. The Flames were going to be sellers with or without Dube (which may or may not help us with the draft pick we acquired from Calgary; it's looking more like it won't make a difference unless Florida also stinks next year). Philly likely won't sell that much being in a playoff position but it's possible they may look at finding a new goalie, and I'll just throw out there that the Primeaus have ties to Philadelphia... and then lastly, the Devils. They've underachieved this year but again, I'm not sure losing two bottom 6 players changes your philosophy. I don't see them being big sellers because they'll want to be Cup contenders again next year with Hischier and Hughes. So if anything, I could see them doubling down and trying to find another power forward and/or still looking for the goalie they needed anyways...
That's what I'm hoping. If they are buyers it will only help. |
|
|
|
Post by claremont on Jan 24, 2024 23:25:11 GMT
With this scandal going on, are those teams involved going to stand pat? Be Buyers? Or be Sellers? It could hurt the Habs if they are Sellers or could help if they are Buyers. Worst-case if Sellers it could not only affect our returns but challenge us for a bottom 5 or 6 pick. Just more bad luck befalling the Habs when they really need to grab a stud at the draft.
Does it change all that much? Formenton was long gone in Ottawa. The Flames were going to be sellers with or without Dube (which may or may not help us with the draft pick we acquired from Calgary; it's looking more like it won't make a difference unless Florida also stinks next year). Philly likely won't sell that much being in a playoff position but it's possible they may look at finding a new goalie, and I'll just throw out there that the Primeaus have ties to Philadelphia... and then lastly, the Devils. They've underachieved this year but again, I'm not sure losing two bottom 6 players changes your philosophy. I don't see them being big sellers because they'll want to be Cup contenders again next year with Hischier and Hughes. So if anything, I could see them doubling down and trying to find another power forward and/or still looking for the goalie they needed anyways...
Losing Michael McLeod (10g, 9a) hurts the Devils as bit as he provided secondary scoring behind Hughes and Hischier and perhaps Haula down the middle at the 3C / 4C spots. Dawson Mercer or Lazar might cover it a bit. I could see NJ having a little more interest in Monahan for his versatility and Faceoff ability. Trouble is there isn't a prospect of interest in their pool for me so I doubt they give up their 1st rounder or Holtz / Mercer who appear to be roster players. Cal Foote, Dillon Dube are pretty replaceable. The loss of Hart really hurts the Flyers playoff chances but Jake Allen is likely not the solution - Brier should want something more like Fleury, Markstrom etc. |
|
|
|
Post by BigTed3 on Jan 25, 2024 2:00:08 GMT
Does it change all that much? Formenton was long gone in Ottawa. The Flames were going to be sellers with or without Dube (which may or may not help us with the draft pick we acquired from Calgary; it's looking more like it won't make a difference unless Florida also stinks next year). Philly likely won't sell that much being in a playoff position but it's possible they may look at finding a new goalie, and I'll just throw out there that the Primeaus have ties to Philadelphia... and then lastly, the Devils. They've underachieved this year but again, I'm not sure losing two bottom 6 players changes your philosophy. I don't see them being big sellers because they'll want to be Cup contenders again next year with Hischier and Hughes. So if anything, I could see them doubling down and trying to find another power forward and/or still looking for the goalie they needed anyways...
Losing Michael McLeod (10g, 9a) hurts the Devils as bit as he provided secondary scoring behind Hughes and Hischier and perhaps Haula down the middle at the 3C / 4C spots. Dawson Mercer or Lazar might cover it a bit. I could see NJ having a little more interest in Monahan for his versatility and Faceoff ability. Trouble is there isn't a prospect of interest in their pool for me so I doubt they give up their 1st rounder or Holtz / Mercer who appear to be roster players. Cal Foote, Dillon Dube are pretty replaceable. The loss of Hart really hurts the Flyers playoff chances but Jake Allen is likely not the solution - Brier should want something more like Fleury, Markstrom etc.
I don't think Briere is thinking about this season as far as a goalie goes. I think he'll want someone who can play now but also be their goalie for 5 years plus. Primeau doesn't have the pedigree but he does have ties to the Flyers with his dad having played there and he would be cheaper to acquire than some other goalies...
|
|
|
|
Post by BigTed3 on Jan 26, 2024 3:13:57 GMT
Player 1: 6'1", 202lbs, 29 year-old center with 8 goals and 31 points in 47 games this year and 0.69 PPG for his career, to go along with 17 points in 27 career playoff games. Cap hit of 4.85M and UFA after this year.
Player 2: 6'2", 202lbs, 29 year-old center with 13 goals and 34 points in 48 games this year and 0.70 PPG for his career, to go along with 21 points in 30 career playoff games. Cap hit of 1.985M and UFA after this year.
The first player is Elias Lindholm, who is widely considered to be the best rental center available on the market. The second is Sean Monahan, who is slightly ahead of Lindholm in production this year, production for his career, production in the playoffs, and size and significantly ahead of him in terms of what cap space a team would need to acquire him. Even if Calgary retained 50% on Lindholm, he would still cost more than Monahan. If Montreal retained 50% on Monahan, he would cost less than Raphael Harvey-Pinard. So which player is overrated here and which one seems like a great deal to try and acquire. If Monahan stays healthy, there is no way Hughes should get less than a 1st rounder for him and at this point, I'd say he's worth a 1st rounder and a good prospect...
|
|
|
|
Post by ramcharger440 on Jan 26, 2024 3:41:54 GMT
Player 1: 6'1", 202lbs, 29 year-old center with 8 goals and 31 points in 47 games this year and 0.69 PPG for his career, to go along with 17 points in 27 career playoff games. Cap hit of 4.85M and UFA after this year. Player 2: 6'2", 202lbs, 29 year-old center with 13 goals and 34 points in 48 games this year and 0.70 PPG for his career, to go along with 21 points in 30 career playoff games. Cap hit of 1.985M and UFA after this year. The first player is Elias Lindholm, who is widely considered to be the best rental center available on the market. The second is Sean Monahan, who is slightly ahead of Lindholm in production this year, production for his career, production in the playoffs, and size and significantly ahead of him in terms of what cap space a team would need to acquire him. Even if Calgary retained 50% on Lindholm, he would still cost more than Monahan. If Montreal retained 50% on Monahan, he would cost less than Raphael Harvey-Pinard. So which player is overrated here and which one seems like a great deal to try and acquire. If Monahan stays healthy, there is no way Hughes should get less than a 1st rounder for him and at this point, I'd say he's worth a 1st rounder and a good prospect... Yep. |
|
|
|
Post by claremont on Jan 26, 2024 4:46:57 GMT
Player 1: 6'1", 202lbs, 29 year-old center with 8 goals and 31 points in 47 games this year and 0.69 PPG for his career, to go along with 17 points in 27 career playoff games. Cap hit of 4.85M and UFA after this year. Player 2: 6'2", 202lbs, 29 year-old center with 13 goals and 34 points in 48 games this year and 0.70 PPG for his career, to go along with 21 points in 30 career playoff games. Cap hit of 1.985M and UFA after this year. The first player is Elias Lindholm, who is widely considered to be the best rental center available on the market. The second is Sean Monahan, who is slightly ahead of Lindholm in production this year, production for his career, production in the playoffs, and size and significantly ahead of him in terms of what cap space a team would need to acquire him. Even if Calgary retained 50% on Lindholm, he would still cost more than Monahan. If Montreal retained 50% on Monahan, he would cost less than Raphael Harvey-Pinard. So which player is overrated here and which one seems like a great deal to try and acquire. If Monahan stays healthy, there is no way Hughes should get less than a 1st rounder for him and at this point, I'd say he's worth a 1st rounder and a good prospect... Yep. The downside is Monahan picks up a lot of his points on the power play first unit. I'm not so sure an acquiring team will put Sean on their first unit, so perhaps the stats are a bit inflated, despite a great F/O draw percentage, and some minor liability in the D zone? Could be a tough rental market. I am hoping for a top prospect (previous 1st rounder), and perhaps a 3rd round pick. |
|
|
|
Post by electron58 on Jan 26, 2024 6:51:01 GMT
Player 1: 6'1", 202lbs, 29 year-old center with 8 goals and 31 points in 47 games this year and 0.69 PPG for his career, to go along with 17 points in 27 career playoff games. Cap hit of 4.85M and UFA after this year. Player 2: 6'2", 202lbs, 29 year-old center with 13 goals and 34 points in 48 games this year and 0.70 PPG for his career, to go along with 21 points in 30 career playoff games. Cap hit of 1.985M and UFA after this year. The first player is Elias Lindholm, who is widely considered to be the best rental center available on the market. The second is Sean Monahan, who is slightly ahead of Lindholm in production this year, production for his career, production in the playoffs, and size and significantly ahead of him in terms of what cap space a team would need to acquire him. Even if Calgary retained 50% on Lindholm, he would still cost more than Monahan. If Montreal retained 50% on Monahan, he would cost less than Raphael Harvey-Pinard. So which player is overrated here and which one seems like a great deal to try and acquire. If Monahan stays healthy, there is no way Hughes should get less than a 1st rounder for him and at this point, I'd say he's worth a 1st rounder and a good prospect... Agreed! His value is ever increasing. |
|
|
|
Post by maasart on Jan 26, 2024 19:02:28 GMT
Player 1: 6'1", 202lbs, 29 year-old center with 8 goals and 31 points in 47 games this year and 0.69 PPG for his career, to go along with 17 points in 27 career playoff games. Cap hit of 4.85M and UFA after this year. Player 2: 6'2", 202lbs, 29 year-old center with 13 goals and 34 points in 48 games this year and 0.70 PPG for his career, to go along with 21 points in 30 career playoff games. Cap hit of 1.985M and UFA after this year. The first player is Elias Lindholm, who is widely considered to be the best rental center available on the market. The second is Sean Monahan, who is slightly ahead of Lindholm in production this year, production for his career, production in the playoffs, and size and significantly ahead of him in terms of what cap space a team would need to acquire him. Even if Calgary retained 50% on Lindholm, he would still cost more than Monahan. If Montreal retained 50% on Monahan, he would cost less than Raphael Harvey-Pinard. So which player is overrated here and which one seems like a great deal to try and acquire. If Monahan stays healthy, there is no way Hughes should get less than a 1st rounder for him and at this point, I'd say he's worth a 1st rounder and a good prospect... I guarantee GMs are looking closely at Monahan. Before he had his hip issues he was one of the top young centre prospects in the league. He had that 82 point season at age 24 & then disaster struck: one massive injury after another. Last year he looked healthy & started strong but had that freak incident. But the team has always contended that his nagging issues with his hips are over. And they sure seem to be. He had a decent start to the year but has suddenly been our best player, 12 points in his last 10 games. Teams are taking notice. Im sure of that. They know that at worst, they are going to get a quality middle six forward to help down the stretch but, at best - they may be getting a top line player. He still has elite skills in several areas. I think someone will pay handsomely for him and I think the return may well be better than Lindholm. The salary is not insignificant either. A team could take him (especially, as you noted, if we retain salary) and waive their lowest paid player and still have the same cap space. This means a team could potentially add Monahan + someone else. Thats potentially huge to the right team. |
|
|
|
Post by BigTed3 on Jan 26, 2024 19:02:30 GMT
The downside is Monahan picks up a lot of his points on the power play first unit. I'm not so sure an acquiring team will put Sean on their first unit, so perhaps the stats are a bit inflated, despite a great F/O draw percentage, and some minor liability in the D zone? Could be a tough rental market. I am hoping for a top prospect (previous 1st rounder), and perhaps a 3rd round pick.
I think he's worth more than that to be honest, given his combination of production, size, and low salary. It's not common that you see a player like this available for rental with that low a potential AAV and he's comparable in every way to the highly-rated Lindholm in addition to having a much cheaper contract. You look at some of the centers who were dealt last year and Max Domi garnered a 2nd rounder, Lars Eller a 2nd rounder, Mikael Granlund a 2nd rounder... Monahan is easily more valuable than any of those players. Ryan O'Reilly was also dealt last year and has similar career production to Monahan, a better playoff pedigree, but was coming off a worse season last year than Monahan is having with us now, went in a complicated trade that essentially brought back a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd plus some spare parts. Conversely, Bo Horvat was in a better-performing season but has lesser career stats than Monahan or ROR, and he went for a 1st, a strong prospect, and Beauvillier. He was a bit younger so I can see more value to acquiring Horvat, but Monahan shouldn't be that far behind in a year where top 6 centers are few and far between.
Two years ago, Claude Giroux went for a 1st, a 3rd, and a top prospect. Now grant it, Giroux has a better pedigree, but he was also older and coming off a similar season to Monahan's current one. We acquired a non-rental in Dvorak for a 1st and a 2nd and frankly, Monahan is a way better player than Dvorak.
All that to say that I think any deal for Monahan has to include a 1st rounder and another piece (equivalent to a recent 1st or 2nd rounder), especially considering that the 1st rounder is going to likely be near the end of the round.
|
|
|
|
Post by maasart on Jan 26, 2024 19:05:47 GMT
The downside is Monahan picks up a lot of his points on the power play first unit. I'm not so sure an acquiring team will put Sean on their first unit, so perhaps the stats are a bit inflated, despite a great F/O draw percentage, and some minor liability in the D zone? Could be a tough rental market. I am hoping for a top prospect (previous 1st rounder), and perhaps a 3rd round pick.
I think he's worth more than that to be honest, given his combination of production, size, and low salary. It's not common that you see a player like this available for rental with that low a potential AAV and he's comparable in every way to the highly-rated Lindholm in addition to having a much cheaper contract. You look at some of the centers who were dealt last year and Max Domi garnered a 2nd rounder, Lars Eller a 2nd rounder, Mikael Granlund a 2nd rounder... Monahan is easily more valuable than any of those players. Ryan O'Reilly was also dealt last year and has similar career production to Monahan, a better playoff pedigree, but was coming off a worse season last year than Monahan is having with us now, went in a complicated trade that essentially brought back a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd plus some spare parts. Conversely, Bo Horvat was in a better-performing season but has lesser career stats than Monahan or ROR, and he went for a 1st, a strong prospect, and Beauvillier. He was a bit younger so I can see more value to acquiring Horvat, but Monahan shouldn't be that far behind in a year where top 6 centers are few and far between.
Two years ago, Claude Giroux went for a 1st, a 3rd, and a top prospect. Now grant it, Giroux has a better pedigree, but he was also older and coming off a similar season to Monahan's current one. We acquired a non-rental in Dvorak for a 1st and a 2nd and frankly, Monahan is a way better player than Dvorak.
All that to say that I think any deal for Monahan has to include a 1st rounder and another piece (equivalent to a recent 1st or 2nd rounder), especially considering that the 1st rounder is going to likely be near the end of the round.
Do you think there's any chance Hughes is considering extending Monahan & if so, for how long? I love Monahan & have since before we aquired him but i dont think its the right move to keep him. Im just not sure Hughes thinks the same way. He's basically the same age as Anderson. |
|
|
|
Post by ramcharger440 on Jan 26, 2024 21:28:58 GMT
I think he's worth more than that to be honest, given his combination of production, size, and low salary. It's not common that you see a player like this available for rental with that low a potential AAV and he's comparable in every way to the highly-rated Lindholm in addition to having a much cheaper contract. You look at some of the centers who were dealt last year and Max Domi garnered a 2nd rounder, Lars Eller a 2nd rounder, Mikael Granlund a 2nd rounder... Monahan is easily more valuable than any of those players. Ryan O'Reilly was also dealt last year and has similar career production to Monahan, a better playoff pedigree, but was coming off a worse season last year than Monahan is having with us now, went in a complicated trade that essentially brought back a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd plus some spare parts. Conversely, Bo Horvat was in a better-performing season but has lesser career stats than Monahan or ROR, and he went for a 1st, a strong prospect, and Beauvillier. He was a bit younger so I can see more value to acquiring Horvat, but Monahan shouldn't be that far behind in a year where top 6 centers are few and far between.
Two years ago, Claude Giroux went for a 1st, a 3rd, and a top prospect. Now grant it, Giroux has a better pedigree, but he was also older and coming off a similar season to Monahan's current one. We acquired a non-rental in Dvorak for a 1st and a 2nd and frankly, Monahan is a way better player than Dvorak.
All that to say that I think any deal for Monahan has to include a 1st rounder and another piece (equivalent to a recent 1st or 2nd rounder), especially considering that the 1st rounder is going to likely be near the end of the round.
Do you think there's any chance Hughes is considering extending Monahan & if so, for how long? I love Monahan & have since before we aquired him but i dont think its the right move to keep him. Im just not sure Hughes thinks the same way. He's basically the same age as Anderson. I really like him but at the end of the day what we could get for him may be just too valuable to ignore! He is older and has been hurt in the past so in some ways he may be a ticking time bomb the problem is we are going to have to be sure we have a center who can fill his minutes get his points and win his faceoffs or we will go backwards for a while he is no run of the mill player which is why I have been so vocal that we have to hit a home run with this trade. Dvo is not that guy Dach should be but that means we tread water for another year unless we can sign someone to fill the spot. |
|
|
|
Post by BigTed3 on Jan 27, 2024 2:51:15 GMT
I think he's worth more than that to be honest, given his combination of production, size, and low salary. It's not common that you see a player like this available for rental with that low a potential AAV and he's comparable in every way to the highly-rated Lindholm in addition to having a much cheaper contract. You look at some of the centers who were dealt last year and Max Domi garnered a 2nd rounder, Lars Eller a 2nd rounder, Mikael Granlund a 2nd rounder... Monahan is easily more valuable than any of those players. Ryan O'Reilly was also dealt last year and has similar career production to Monahan, a better playoff pedigree, but was coming off a worse season last year than Monahan is having with us now, went in a complicated trade that essentially brought back a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd plus some spare parts. Conversely, Bo Horvat was in a better-performing season but has lesser career stats than Monahan or ROR, and he went for a 1st, a strong prospect, and Beauvillier. He was a bit younger so I can see more value to acquiring Horvat, but Monahan shouldn't be that far behind in a year where top 6 centers are few and far between.
Two years ago, Claude Giroux went for a 1st, a 3rd, and a top prospect. Now grant it, Giroux has a better pedigree, but he was also older and coming off a similar season to Monahan's current one. We acquired a non-rental in Dvorak for a 1st and a 2nd and frankly, Monahan is a way better player than Dvorak.
All that to say that I think any deal for Monahan has to include a 1st rounder and another piece (equivalent to a recent 1st or 2nd rounder), especially considering that the 1st rounder is going to likely be near the end of the round.
Do you think there's any chance Hughes is considering extending Monahan & if so, for how long? I love Monahan & have since before we aquired him but i dont think its the right move to keep him. Im just not sure Hughes thinks the same way. He's basically the same age as Anderson.
I think Hughes is a smart guy and I think he'll consider all options. However, I think the odds are higher that he'll trade Monahan. For one, it sounds like he told Monahan he would "trade him when the time came" according to reports. We've had multiple sources report that Monahan received offers for more term and money than what Montreal gave him but that Monahan viewed this as an opportunity come back to a place he felt welcome in and had the chance to play and prove himself, so that he could go out and earn a bigger contract next year. And so I think it fits with what we've heard that Monahan agreed to take less money in exchange for getting the chance to play in the top 6 and the chance to showcase himself for a trade to a contender by the deadline. taking less money makes him more appealing to a contender and increases the odds he'll get to go where he wants. I think KH has shown he values honoring his word, and so I think he'll do right by Monahan and get him to a contender if that was indeed SM's plan.
Past that, I think Hughes also knows that we're not a contender right now. I think that's pretty clear to him. Last year, he didn't want to come out and say it, but he seemed to indicate that there were some advantages and disadvantages to losing games, and he seemed to understand that getting high draft picks was of value. So I think he recognizes that the re-build takes time and that there's more value in an asset that helps you down the line than one that helps you be mediocre now.
Now the complicated part is trying to figure out what Hughes' timeline is. No matter how well he understands the rebuild, he's human and he knows that fans and ownership will eventually grow impatient if things take too long. So whereas the smart move might be continuing to stockpile high picks for another year or two, there's going to be pressure to push for the playoffs next year. So Hughes will have to make that decision. Does he try to re-sign Monahan and retain players like Matheson and Anderson and Savard a bit longer? Or does he use those players to recoup other assets? Re-signing Monahan definitely increases your team's chances next year and the year after, but that could be at the expense of how we fare down the line. So I do wonder if Hughes thinks he'll be able to have his cake and eat it too and sign Monahan for something like 3-4 years at 5M AAV then try to trade him in 2-3 years before that deal expires. It's risky though. We've seen what's happened when we've tried to sign players into their 30s... Plekanec, Markov, Hamrlik, Gionta, Petry, Anderson, Gallagher... players that eventually hit a wall in their careers and lost their trade value before we could make a move. I don't see Monahan overcoming those odds, and while I think he'll be useful for another 2-3 years, he's not a guy who will be a cornerstone here in 5 years, so you can't overpay him for too long and you can't give out a contract that becomes untradeable when you have a roster whereby you need every dollar to compete for a Cup.
Ultimately, I think Hughes would love to trade Monahan for a player who is 19-21. Get a guy who is ready to step onto your roster right away this year or next and skip over the first few years of development. He's been forthright that he likes that strategy and he used it by acquiring Dach and Newhook. So either he could try to go after an NHL-ready prospect or he could deal Monahan for the best possible return in draft pick currency and then try to flip those picks at the draft for the type of player he wants. I've already given a few examples, but if we look at a team like the Jets, who have rumored to be after Monahan, then getting a player in the trade like a Colby Barlow, Rutger McGroarty, Chaz Lucius, Ville Heinola, Elias Salomonsson, or Brad Lambert might be what he attempts. Could he go out and get Barlow or Lambert + a 2nd rounder? Could he get Salomonsson or Heinola + a 1st? I think those are the types of deals that might interest him. But yes, I think the priority will be trading him if that type of deal exists.
|
|
|
|
Post by claremont on Jan 27, 2024 4:01:17 GMT
Do you think there's any chance Hughes is considering extending Monahan & if so, for how long? I love Monahan & have since before we aquired him but i dont think its the right move to keep him. Im just not sure Hughes thinks the same way. He's basically the same age as Anderson.
I think Hughes is a smart guy and I think he'll consider all options. However, I think the odds are higher that he'll trade Monahan. For one, it sounds like he told Monahan he would "trade him when the time came" according to reports. We've had multiple sources report that Monahan received offers for more term and money than what Montreal gave him but that Monahan viewed this as an opportunity come back to a place he felt welcome in and had the chance to play and prove himself, so that he could go out and earn a bigger contract next year. And so I think it fits with what we've heard that Monahan agreed to take less money in exchange for getting the chance to play in the top 6 and the chance to showcase himself for a trade to a contender by the deadline. taking less money makes him more appealing to a contender and increases the odds he'll get to go where he wants. I think KH has shown he values honoring his word, and so I think he'll do right by Monahan and get him to a contender if that was indeed SM's plan.
Past that, I think Hughes also knows that we're not a contender right now. I think that's pretty clear to him. Last year, he didn't want to come out and say it, but he seemed to indicate that there were some advantages and disadvantages to losing games, and he seemed to understand that getting high draft picks was of value. So I think he recognizes that the re-build takes time and that there's more value in an asset that helps you down the line than one that helps you be mediocre now.
Now the complicated part is trying to figure out what Hughes' timeline is. No matter how well he understands the rebuild, he's human and he knows that fans and ownership will eventually grow impatient if things take too long. So whereas the smart move might be continuing to stockpile high picks for another year or two, there's going to be pressure to push for the playoffs next year. So Hughes will have to make that decision. Does he try to re-sign Monahan and retain players like Matheson and Anderson and Savard a bit longer? Or does he use those players to recoup other assets? Re-signing Monahan definitely increases your team's chances next year and the year after, but that could be at the expense of how we fare down the line. So I do wonder if Hughes thinks he'll be able to have his cake and eat it too and sign Monahan for something like 3-4 years at 5M AAV then try to trade him in 2-3 years before that deal expires. It's risky though. We've seen what's happened when we've tried to sign players into their 30s... Plekanec, Markov, Hamrlik, Gionta, Petry, Anderson, Gallagher... players that eventually hit a wall in their careers and lost their trade value before we could make a move. I don't see Monahan overcoming those odds, and while I think he'll be useful for another 2-3 years, he's not a guy who will be a cornerstone here in 5 years, so you can't overpay him for too long and you can't give out a contract that becomes untradeable when you have a roster whereby you need every dollar to compete for a Cup.
Ultimately, I think Hughes would love to trade Monahan for a player who is 19-21. Get a guy who is ready to step onto your roster right away this year or next and skip over the first few years of development. He's been forthright that he likes that strategy and he used it by acquiring Dach and Newhook. So either he could try to go after an NHL-ready prospect or he could deal Monahan for the best possible return in draft pick currency and then try to flip those picks at the draft for the type of player he wants. I've already given a few examples, but if we look at a team like the Jets, who have rumored to be after Monahan, then getting a player in the trade like a Colby Barlow, Rutger McGroarty, Chaz Lucius, Ville Heinola, Elias Salomonsson, or Brad Lambert might be what he attempts. Could he go out and get Barlow or Lambert + a 2nd rounder? Could he get Salomonsson or Heinola + a 1st? I think those are the types of deals that might interest him. But yes, I think the priority will be trading him if that type of deal exists.
I like some of your comparables in an earlier post for Monahan value, but I wonder if GM's start to think more carefully about rentals. Domi didn't move the needle for Dallas, likewise Eller did not do much for Colorado. O'Rielly probably helped the leafs win a round, and though not a centre, Bertuzzi for a 1st flopped in Boston. I never thought that Monahan really needs salary retention to attract more bidders, as you suggested in another earlier post. If you can't afford $1.985M prorated on Monahan, IMO you shouldn't be in the race. I would much rather use the retained salary option on Armia, Savard or Allen even though it increases the 2024-25 slots to 2 (Petry being the other). I suspect if Hugo can get a prospect further along in development like the Dach, Newhook additions, he will, but both the Newhook and Dach deals were draft day deals. If we take a 1st round draft pick, it will be in the nebulous #17-32 position, and we know how the percentages drop. Now which trade is harder, a draft day trade (e.g. trading that #17-32 pick), or a contender / trade deadline deal? Almost all of the deadline deals I reviewed, contenders deal draft picks and not prospects (Exceptions - Eckholm deal - Oilers gave up Schaefer, Meier deal - devils gave up Mukhamadullin, Horvat deal Isles gave up 2nd round Raty. The historicals suggest we will get draft picks, and then HuGo uses it on draft day. BTW Yes to the Barlow (injured in the OHL) or Lambert plus a 2nd round pick type deal. McGroarty has grit but I am not sure of his skill talent for a 2C. We have talked about teams in the bidding - Add the Rangers given the Filip Chytil setback where he had to be helped of the ice on his first practice. |
|
|
|
Post by BigTed3 on Jan 28, 2024 3:46:34 GMT
I think Hughes is a smart guy and I think he'll consider all options. However, I think the odds are higher that he'll trade Monahan. For one, it sounds like he told Monahan he would "trade him when the time came" according to reports. We've had multiple sources report that Monahan received offers for more term and money than what Montreal gave him but that Monahan viewed this as an opportunity come back to a place he felt welcome in and had the chance to play and prove himself, so that he could go out and earn a bigger contract next year. And so I think it fits with what we've heard that Monahan agreed to take less money in exchange for getting the chance to play in the top 6 and the chance to showcase himself for a trade to a contender by the deadline. taking less money makes him more appealing to a contender and increases the odds he'll get to go where he wants. I think KH has shown he values honoring his word, and so I think he'll do right by Monahan and get him to a contender if that was indeed SM's plan.
Past that, I think Hughes also knows that we're not a contender right now. I think that's pretty clear to him. Last year, he didn't want to come out and say it, but he seemed to indicate that there were some advantages and disadvantages to losing games, and he seemed to understand that getting high draft picks was of value. So I think he recognizes that the re-build takes time and that there's more value in an asset that helps you down the line than one that helps you be mediocre now.
Now the complicated part is trying to figure out what Hughes' timeline is. No matter how well he understands the rebuild, he's human and he knows that fans and ownership will eventually grow impatient if things take too long. So whereas the smart move might be continuing to stockpile high picks for another year or two, there's going to be pressure to push for the playoffs next year. So Hughes will have to make that decision. Does he try to re-sign Monahan and retain players like Matheson and Anderson and Savard a bit longer? Or does he use those players to recoup other assets? Re-signing Monahan definitely increases your team's chances next year and the year after, but that could be at the expense of how we fare down the line. So I do wonder if Hughes thinks he'll be able to have his cake and eat it too and sign Monahan for something like 3-4 years at 5M AAV then try to trade him in 2-3 years before that deal expires. It's risky though. We've seen what's happened when we've tried to sign players into their 30s... Plekanec, Markov, Hamrlik, Gionta, Petry, Anderson, Gallagher... players that eventually hit a wall in their careers and lost their trade value before we could make a move. I don't see Monahan overcoming those odds, and while I think he'll be useful for another 2-3 years, he's not a guy who will be a cornerstone here in 5 years, so you can't overpay him for too long and you can't give out a contract that becomes untradeable when you have a roster whereby you need every dollar to compete for a Cup. Ultimately, I think Hughes would love to trade Monahan for a player who is 19-21. Get a guy who is ready to step onto your roster right away this year or next and skip over the first few years of development. He's been forthright that he likes that strategy and he used it by acquiring Dach and Newhook. So either he could try to go after an NHL-ready prospect or he could deal Monahan for the best possible return in draft pick currency and then try to flip those picks at the draft for the type of player he wants. I've already given a few examples, but if we look at a team like the Jets, who have rumored to be after Monahan, then getting a player in the trade like a Colby Barlow, Rutger McGroarty, Chaz Lucius, Ville Heinola, Elias Salomonsson, or Brad Lambert might be what he attempts. Could he go out and get Barlow or Lambert + a 2nd rounder? Could he get Salomonsson or Heinola + a 1st? I think those are the types of deals that might interest him. But yes, I think the priority will be trading him if that type of deal exists.
I like some of your comparables in an earlier post for Monahan value, but I wonder if GM's start to think more carefully about rentals. Domi didn't move the needle for Dallas, likewise Eller did not do much for Colorado. O'Rielly probably helped the leafs win a round, and though not a centre, Bertuzzi for a 1st flopped in Boston. I never thought that Monahan really needs salary retention to attract more bidders, as you suggested in another earlier post. If you can't afford $1.985M prorated on Monahan, IMO you shouldn't be in the race. I would much rather use the retained salary option on Armia, Savard or Allen even though it increases the 2024-25 slots to 2 (Petry being the other). I suspect if Hugo can get a prospect further along in development like the Dach, Newhook additions, he will, but both the Newhook and Dach deals were draft day deals. If we take a 1st round draft pick, it will be in the nebulous #17-32 position, and we know how the percentages drop. Now which trade is harder, a draft day trade (e.g. trading that #17-32 pick), or a contender / trade deadline deal? Almost all of the deadline deals I reviewed, contenders deal draft picks and not prospects (Exceptions - Eckholm deal - Oilers gave up Schaefer, Meier deal - devils gave up Mukhamadullin, Horvat deal Isles gave up 2nd round Raty. The historicals suggest we will get draft picks, and then HuGo uses it on draft day. BTW Yes to the Barlow (injured in the OHL) or Lambert plus a 2nd round pick type deal. McGroarty has grit but I am not sure of his skill talent for a 2C. We have talked about teams in the bidding - Add the Rangers given the Filip Chytil setback where he had to be helped of the ice on his first practice. I mean, how do we judge if a rental worked out or not? Dallas made the WCF and Domi put up 13 points in the post-season, so he didn't flop by any means. There can only be one Cup winner per year and if 10-12 teams go out and get key rental players, most of them won't end up winning the Cup. We can also point out that Vegas went out and got Barbashev as a rental, that he played really well for them, and then they opted to re-sign him after the season. Tampa won a Cup going out to get David Savard. Colorado won going out to get Lehkonen as a pending RFA and Manson as a pending UFA. So there's also precedent for teams adding vets and doing well with them.
On one of your other points, I think GMs in general are more willing to give up picks than good prospects. Why? It comes down to what I've said about GMs before: they want to avoid moves that have the potential to bite them for looking bad. When you trade a prospect, there's a guy you can follow to see what they become. When you trade a pick, you don't know what spot that pick will end up being, you don't know who the other team will take, and you can always argue you would have taken someone different in that same spot. For example, the Kulak deal... if we dealt Lane Hutson now for a rental D man, Hughes would get torched. But the Oilers can say the Kulak trade had nothing to do with their opinion of Hutson as a player. So no one is going to go out and accuse Holland of giving up on Hutson. GMs also tend to be more attached to guys they drafted themselves and feel responsible for how they develop. If we're looking to trade for a prospect, it might be easier to find someone who wasn't drafted by the current GM. Teams like Toronto, Ottawa, Philly, San Jose, Anaheim, Vancouver, Chicago, Calgary, Pittsburgh, and Nashville all have new GMs in the past couple of years and might be less attached to players they drafted before that period.
The Jets, Avs, Canes, Canucks, and Bruins are the teams rumored to be most actively canvasing for another center, and now Elliotte Friedman is saying tonight that the Rangers are in on Monahan too. We know Kaapo Kakko could be a reclamation project Gorton is familiar with. Brennan Othmann is another player I've suggested the Habs look into before who brings a more physical element to the wing but can still provide offence. Adam Sykora's a guy I liked in his draft year but who figures to be more of a 3rd liner, and the same can be said of Will Cuyle as a potential middle 6 guy. Bryce McConnell-Barker has some upside as a center prospect, and then Gabe Perreault would obviously be the biggest fish we could pull from their prospect pool. So I wonder if you could swing a deal for Perreault + a 3rd OR Othmann + a 2nd OR McConnell-Barker + a 1st. One of those deals would bring back two assets and give Hughes a prospect who has the chance to make the NHL in the next two years.
|
|
regis
Le Gros Bill
Posts: 1,275
|
Post by regis on Jan 29, 2024 0:09:10 GMT
www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/nhl/rangers-eye-sean-monahan-trade-amidst-chytil-s-setback/ar-BB1hoke7?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=7800c258be544668a52698b6fbddeebe&ei=27Rangers Eye Sean Monahan Trade Amidst Chytil’s Setback Story by NHL Trade Talk • 4h Elliotte Friedman’s recent insights shed light on the New York Rangers’ intensified pursuit of a center, particularly following Filip Chytil‘s setback in recovering from a concussion. The Rangers, despite facing recent challenges, hold a favorable position in the Metropolitan Division standings, and their eagerness to secure a player to fill a hole is a big discussion in the current rumor mill. Specifically, it sounds like the Rangers might have their sights set on a player of Sean Monahan‘s caliber Monahan, recognized for his skill, but also league-wide for his remarkable comeback from adversity, has become a sought-after player. Just a few years ago, doubts surrounded his ability to continue playing, but he has not only returned to the ice but thrived. His recent success has prompted interest from various teams. The Rangers, already in the market for a center, are reportedly one of the teams eyeing the veteran. Unfortunately, Friedman acknowledges this might not be the easiest deal to pull off as the relationship between the Rangers and the Montreal Canadiens isn’t what many would call friendly. While Monahan’s contract with the Canadiens carries a $1.985 million cap hit for this one-year deal, the Rangers, facing some financial constraints, may need to navigate their cap space carefully. If the Canadiens would be open to retaining salary, this would be ideal for the Rangers. But, getting Montreal to retain when the market for Monahan is hot could be easier said than done. Monahan’s versatility and ability to contribute at both ends of the ice make him an appealing trade deadline target for the Rangers and others.
|
|
|
|
Post by maasart on Jan 29, 2024 5:15:25 GMT
www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/nhl/rangers-eye-sean-monahan-trade-amidst-chytil-s-setback/ar-BB1hoke7?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=7800c258be544668a52698b6fbddeebe&ei=27Rangers Eye Sean Monahan Trade Amidst Chytil’s Setback Story by NHL Trade Talk • 4h Elliotte Friedman’s recent insights shed light on the New York Rangers’ intensified pursuit of a center, particularly following Filip Chytil‘s setback in recovering from a concussion. The Rangers, despite facing recent challenges, hold a favorable position in the Metropolitan Division standings, and their eagerness to secure a player to fill a hole is a big discussion in the current rumor mill. Specifically, it sounds like the Rangers might have their sights set on a player of Sean Monahan‘s caliber Monahan, recognized for his skill, but also league-wide for his remarkable comeback from adversity, has become a sought-after player. Just a few years ago, doubts surrounded his ability to continue playing, but he has not only returned to the ice but thrived. His recent success has prompted interest from various teams. The Rangers, already in the market for a center, are reportedly one of the teams eyeing the veteran. Unfortunately, Friedman acknowledges this might not be the easiest deal to pull off as the relationship between the Rangers and the Montreal Canadiens isn’t what many would call friendly.While Monahan’s contract with the Canadiens carries a $1.985 million cap hit for this one-year deal, the Rangers, facing some financial constraints, may need to navigate their cap space carefully. If the Canadiens would be open to retaining salary, this would be ideal for the Rangers. But, getting Montreal to retain when the market for Monahan is hot could be easier said than done. Monahan’s versatility and ability to contribute at both ends of the ice make him an appealing trade deadline target for the Rangers and others. The bolded part is interesting. I wonder why they suggest the relationship isnt friendly? Because Gorton was fired from the Rags? I suppose if thats true (that he holds animosity) then it puts us in a better position (he wont let Hughes do them any favours) although, in reality, i suspect Gorton would just stay out of it, as he is, first and foremost, a good businessman. |
|
|
|
Post by ChiLla on Jan 29, 2024 14:17:34 GMT
Jiricek frustrated with Blue Jackets: 'I should be in the NHL right now'
Trade rumors incoming in 3...2...1... 
|
|
|
|
Post by claremont on Jan 29, 2024 14:49:45 GMT
Jiricek frustrated with Blue Jackets: 'I should be in the NHL right now'
Trade rumors incoming in 3...2...1... Agree - you get 6g, 32a in the ahl in your Draft plus 1 year, you deserve an extended look and playing minutes in the nhl - what more does he have to prove in the ahl? He's playing behind Severson, Gudbranson, and fighting for minutes with Peeke and Boqvist. The Columbus BJ are becoming a bit of a farce with Davidson and Jarmo at the helm. First Babcock then Merzlikens grumbling, Laine fails, and mismanagement of their RHD side - Boqvist included. Would he ever look good on our RHD side with Reinbacher and Mailloux This is the type of player I would give up one of our 2025 first round picks for, plus 2 roster players - Harris / Xhekaj or a Ylonen / RHP as one would think Columbus would want players under RFA control. |
|
|
|
Post by maasart on Jan 29, 2024 15:19:29 GMT
Jiricek frustrated with Blue Jackets: 'I should be in the NHL right now'
Trade rumors incoming in 3...2...1... Agree - you get 6g, 32a in the ahl in your Draft plus 1 year, you deserve an extended look and playing minutes in the nhl - what more does he have to prove in the ahl? He's playing behind Severson, Gudbranson, and fighting for minutes with Peeke and Boqvist. The Columbus BJ are becoming a bit of a farce with Davidson and Jarmo at the helm. First Babcock then Merzlikens grumbling, Laine fails, and mismanagement of their RHD side - Boqvist included. Would he ever look good on our RHD side with Reinbacher and Mailloux This is the type of player I would give up one of our 2025 first round picks for, plus 2 roster players - Harris / Xhekaj or a Ylonen / RHP as one would think Columbus would want players under RFA control. They are strong at LD but i wonder if they would consider a Jiricek for one of our top LD. I dont want to move Guhle but this is the type of move where we trade from a position of strength (LD) to fill a position of weakness, RD. I could actually see Hughes considering a Hutson for Jiricek move although im not sure Columbus would take the diminutive Hutson. Obviously the best case scenario would be Matheson for Jiricek since MM isnt in our long term plans at his age. Jiricek is exactly the kind of guy id be targeting. If you could actually get him for matheson, our top 6 in a few years could be: Hutson - Reinbacher Guhle - Jiricek Struble - Mailloux And if an of them falter you have Harris, Xhekaj, Barron, Engstrom and others waiting in the wings. |
|
|
|
Post by maasart on Jan 29, 2024 17:27:40 GMT
If you belive David Pagnotta of the 4th period (more reputable than Eklund but probably not as much as Dreger or McKenzie or someone) teams have inquired about Xhekaj and at least one offer has been made.
The offer was believed to be for "a young NHL forward and a former first round pick. The first round pick in question has second line potential. Montreal declined that offer, signalling that they value him much higher. Also, they may not be inclined to want to move him."
I cant tell from how that was written if the offer was for 2 players (a young forward and a former first rounder?) or if that young forward is a former 1st rounder, but either way, it does sound like:
- Teams are interested in Xhekaj and will pay for him
- Hughes will listen to offers but...
- Hughes is not trying to move him, it has to make sense first and foremost.
|
|
